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Serenor Capital
ENFR

NPL Investment Advisory | Morocco

Underwriting non-performing loan portfolios in Morocco.

We support investors and financial institutions in the analysis, valuation and post-acquisition monitoring of non-performing and distressed credit exposures.

Before acquisition, we assess expected recoveries, timing, costs and downside scenarios to determine what a portfolio is worth. After closing, we monitor performance against the original underwriting and support the recovery strategy.

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Recovery profile

Underwriting case

01224364860MONTHS FROM ACQUISITIONPERIOD RECOVERIES

Loan tape

Segments

Loan tape
ExposureSecurityStagePath
Secured SME1st rankingEnforcementCollateral
Corporate1st rankingRestructuringConsensual
CRE-backedSharedJudgmentCollateral
UnsecuredNonePre-legalSettlement

Schematic. Recovery profile, cost drag and cumulative collections against an underwriting case. No portfolio data.

The problem

Face value tells you very little about what a distressed loan is worth.

The economic value of a distressed exposure depends on what can realistically be recovered, how long recovery will take and what it will cost.

We focus on the variables that determine those outcomes:

  • 01Collateral
  • 02Creditor ranking
  • 03Guarantees
  • 04Borrower viability
  • 05Legal status
  • 06Restructuring options
  • 07Servicing costs
  • 08Enforcement costs
  • 09Time to recovery

Those assumptions are then translated into expected cash flows and a maximum acquisition price.

What we do

Two mandates, either side of closing.

01

NPL Portfolio Underwriting

What is the portfolio worth?

We analyse loan portfolios before acquisition to estimate the amount, timing and cost of expected recoveries.

Capabilities

  • Loan tape review and normalisation
  • Portfolio segmentation
  • Material exposure review
  • Recovery scenario modelling
  • Borrower and guarantor analysis
  • Collateral analysis
  • Security and creditor-ranking review
  • Legal-risk identification
  • Recovery timing assumptions
  • Servicing and enforcement cost assumptions
  • Downside analysis
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Maximum acquisition price
  • Bid analysis
  • Investment Committee materials

Typical outputs

  • Portfolio screening note
  • Loan-level underwriting model
  • Recovery model
  • Risk register
  • Pricing model
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Bid recommendation
  • Investment Committee memorandum
NPL portfolio underwriting →

02

Portfolio Monitoring & Recovery Strategy

Is the portfolio performing against underwriting?

Following acquisition, we monitor expected versus actual recoveries and help coordinate the workstreams that affect portfolio performance.

Capabilities

  • Exposure-level recovery strategies
  • Expected-versus-actual monitoring
  • Recovery forecast updates
  • Restructuring analysis
  • Settlement evaluation
  • Servicer monitoring
  • Legal-workstream coordination
  • Collateral monitoring
  • REO monitoring
  • Valuer and broker coordination
  • Cash collection monitoring
  • Portfolio reporting
  • Updated return forecasts

Scope

We are not positioned as a mass-market collection call centre. Our role is to help the investor monitor the portfolio, assess available recovery options and coordinate the relevant financial, legal and operational specialists.

Portfolio monitoring →

Proprietary underwriting framework

Underwriting supported by Serenor Credit™

Serenor Credit™ structures loan-level data, recovery assumptions, collateral analysis, legal status, costs and timing into a consistent underwriting framework.

What it does

  • Standardise loan-level analysis
  • Segment portfolios
  • Model recovery scenarios
  • Identify material risks and exceptions
  • Compare expected recoveries across exposures
  • Calculate risk-adjusted acquisition prices
  • Monitor expected versus actual performance after acquisition
Loan data, collateral, security and legal position, recovery scenarios, and costs and timing are structured through Serenor Credit™ into expected recoveries, a downside case and a maximum acquisition price.

Inputs

  • Loan Data
  • Collateral
  • Security & Legal Position
  • Recovery Scenarios
  • Costs & Timing
FrameworkSerenor Credit™

Outputs

  • Expected Recoveries
  • Downside Case
  • Maximum Acquisition Price

Investment decisions remain subject to professional judgement and appropriate legal, financial and collateral review.

Method

How we approach a portfolio.

  1. 01

    Data Review

    Understand the portfolio and identify missing or inconsistent information.

  2. 02

    Segmentation

    Group exposures according to borrower profile, collateral, legal status and likely recovery path.

  3. 03

    Exposure Review

    Analyse the largest and most material positions individually.

  4. 04

    Recovery Modelling

    Estimate expected recovery amounts, costs and timing.

  5. 05

    Downside Analysis

    Test the assumptions that matter most to investment value.

  6. 06

    Pricing

    Translate expected cash flows into a maximum acquisition price.

Pricing framework

From contractual claim to acquisition price.

The structure below is the shape of every underwriting model we build. It contains no portfolio data.

  1. Contractual Claim

    Principal, capitalised interest, fees and costs as recorded

  2. Expected Consensual Recoveries

    Voluntary payment, negotiated settlement, restructuring

  3. Expected Collateral Proceeds

    Net of prior-ranking claims and realisation discount

  4. Other Recoveries

    Guarantors, co-obligors, insurance, third-party claims

  5. Legal / Servicing / Disposal Costs

    Court and enforcement costs, servicing fees, valuation, brokerage, taxes

  6. Timing of Cash Flows

    Each recovery placed on a timetable, not an average

  7. Downside Scenarios

    Coherent adverse cases on the assumptions that move value

  8. Required Return

    Discount rate set by the investor's return threshold

  9. Maximum Acquisition Price

    The highest price at which the transaction still meets the threshold

Coverage

Initial areas of focus.

We favour situations where detailed analysis of the borrower, collateral, security package and recovery path can materially affect investment value.

  • 01Secured SME exposures
  • 02Corporate NPLs
  • 03Commercial real-estate-backed credit
  • 04Restructuring situations
  • 05Repossessed assets / REO
  • 06Selected granular portfolios where sufficient data supports robust underwriting

After closing

Underwriting does not end at closing.

Portfolio performance should be continuously compared with the assumptions used to price the acquisition.

This allows the investor to identify underperformance early, update the recovery strategy and improve future underwriting.

At acquisition

After acquisition

  • Expected recoveryActual cash collected
  • Expected timingActual timing
  • Expected legal costActual costs
  • Expected servicing costActual servicing cost
  • Expected collateral proceedsActual collateral proceeds
  • Underwriting recovery forecastUpdated recovery forecast
  • Expected returnUpdated expected return

Counterparties

Who we support

  • Distressed-credit investors
  • Private-credit funds
  • Special-situations investors
  • Family offices
  • Banks and financial institutions
  • Institutional investors
  • Securitisation participants

Insights

Research & Perspectives

All insights →

Reviewing a distressed-credit opportunity in Morocco?

If you are evaluating a portfolio, preparing a transaction or monitoring acquired exposures, we would be pleased to discuss the situation.

Discuss an Opportunity