A recovery-based approach to value.

01

Start with the underlying exposure

A loan tape is a summary of a legal relationship, not the relationship itself. For each material exposure we establish who the obligor is, what was lent, what has been repaid, what has been capitalised, and what the claim would amount to if it had to be proved. Where the tape and the underlying file disagree, the file governs. This step usually determines how much of the portfolio can be underwritten exposure by exposure and how much has to be treated statistically.

02

Understand the collateral and security package

Collateral matters to the extent it can be reached. We look at what secures the exposure, whether the security was validly created and registered, where the holder ranks against other creditors, and what would remain after prior-ranking claims, taxes and the cost of realisation. Guarantees are assessed on the guarantor's ability to pay rather than the face amount of the guarantee. An unregistered charge, a stale valuation or a shared ranking moves the recovery estimate more than most tape fields do.

03

Model realistic recovery paths

Each segment and each material exposure is assigned the routes actually open to it: voluntary payment, negotiated settlement, restructuring, enforcement against collateral, or sale of the claim. Weightings follow the borrower's situation and the procedural stage rather than a portfolio-wide recovery rate. Where the data does not support an exposure-level view we say so, and price the segment on an observed range with the uncertainty stated.

04

Incorporate time and cost

A dirham recovered in year five is worth materially less than a dirham recovered in year one, and that difference is often larger than the difference between a good and a poor recovery rate. Every recovery path carries a timetable anchored to procedural stage, and every path is charged with what stands between the claim and the cash: court and enforcement costs, legal fees, servicing fees, valuation, property holding costs, brokerage and taxes on disposal.

05

Test downside scenarios

A small number of assumptions move most of the value, typically collateral realisation, enforcement duration and the outcome on the largest exposures. We test those individually and together. A downside case is not a uniform haircut applied to the base case: it is a coherent scenario in which specific things go wrong, such as enforcement running years beyond the assumption, a security interest being successfully challenged, or a property meeting a thin market.

06

Determine the price

Expected cash flows, net of cost and placed in time, are discounted at the return the investor requires for the risk. That produces a maximum acquisition price rather than a valuation. We show the price at several required-return levels and identify the point at which the transaction stops clearing the investor's threshold, so the bid decision is taken against an explicit trade-off rather than a single figure.

07

Monitor performance after acquisition

The pricing model becomes the benchmark for the portfolio. Collections are compared against it monthly or quarterly, and each difference is attributed to a cause: an amount that was wrong, a timetable that slipped, a cost that was understated, or an assumption that did not hold. That tells the investor which exposures need intervention now, and it is the only dependable way to improve the assumptions used on the next portfolio.