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Serenor Capital
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Insights

Research & Perspectives

A research library on non-performing loans, distressed-credit valuation and the development of Morocco’s secondary credit market.

Reference notes

Regulation9 min read

FPCT Structures for Moroccan NPL Transfers

An investor guide to Moroccan FPCT structures for non-performing loan portfolios, and how they differ from the proposed direct-transfer regime.

Market

Market6 min read

Secured vs Unsecured NPLs in Morocco

The distinction between secured and unsecured claims drives underwriting: collateral type, ranking, enforcement timeline and costs determine recoverable value.

Market6 min read

Corporate NPLs in Morocco: Underwriting Differences

Corporate NPLs require bespoke underwriting: larger tickets, complex security packages, sector exposure and restructuring potential differ materially from retail claims.

Market6 min read

How a Moroccan NPL Portfolio Sale Process Works

A typical Moroccan NPL sale follows defined stages: portfolio preparation, marketing, indicative bids, due diligence, binding offers and closing with servicing handover.

Market3 min read

NPL severity in Morocco

Severity is the split of the stock across pre-doubtful, doubtful and compromised claims. At end-2025, compromised claims were 80.8% of the social-basis stock, 2.3 percentage points lower than in 2022.

Market2 min read

How to read Morocco's NPL coverage ratio

The sector coverage ratio is the figure BAM publishes, not a recalculated quotient. At end-2025 it is 68% on a social basis. It is not a recovery rate.

Market2 min read

Solo and consolidated NPL figures in Morocco

At end-2025, banks reported MAD 102.3 billion of NPLs on a social basis (8.3%) and 141.7 on a consolidated basis (8.8%). The series are not added together.

Market2 min read

Finance company NPLs in Morocco

Finance companies are supervised apart from banks. Their NPL ratio is not read off the social-basis bank curve.

Market3 min read

Participatory bank NPLs in Morocco

Participatory banks are supervised apart. Mourabaha and ijara are not priced on a conventional credit curve: the asset and the remedy follow the contract.

Market2 min read

Irregular claims are wider than NPLs

Bank Al-Maghrib sometimes uses 'irregular claims' for a wider aggregate than non-performing claims alone. The two phrases do not substitute for each other.

Market2 min read

Loan moratoria and Morocco's NPL stock

A moratorium can keep files off the grid while ability to pay has already deteriorated. A stable ratio in that period is not read as an improvement.

Market2 min read

Tourism NPLs in Morocco

A tourism NPL depends on the season, the lease or the management contract, and the ability to sell a going concern. A home-loan curve does not apply.

Market2 min read

Construction NPLs in Morocco

Construction NPLs mix developers, contractors and unsold stock. A mortgage on an unfinished scheme is not priced like a home loan.

Market2 min read

Agricultural NPLs in Morocco

An agricultural NPL follows seasonal cash and a title that is not always registered. An urban mortgage is not carried over without checking the status of the land.

Market3 min read

Consumer credit NPLs in Morocco

Consumer NPLs are typically small-ticket, lightly documented and highly sensitive to the cost of routine engagement.

Market2 min read

Overdraft NPLs in Morocco

Overdraft NPLs combine a potentially volatile balance, an operating-account relationship and set-off rights that must be verified before they are priced.

Market2 min read

Working-capital NPLs in Morocco

Working-capital NPLs in Morocco: a method note for Moroccan portfolios, without invented rates.

Market2 min read

Auto-loan NPLs in Morocco

Auto-loan NPLs in Morocco: a method note for Moroccan portfolios, without invented rates.

Market2 min read

Microfinance NPLs in Morocco

Microfinance NPLs in Morocco: a method note for Moroccan portfolios, without invented rates.

Market2 min read

Syndicated loan NPLs in Morocco

Syndicated loan NPLs in Morocco: a method note for Moroccan portfolios, without invented rates.

Valuation

Valuation4 min read

Why Recovery Timing Matters as Much as Recovery Rate

Recovery rate is the number most often quoted and the one most often used to compare portfolios. On its own it does not price anything, because it says nothing about when the cash arrives or what it costs to get it.

Valuation4 min read

Collateral Value Is Not Recovery Value

A valuation states what a property might fetch between a willing buyer and a willing seller. Enforcement is neither. The gap between the two is systematic and can be estimated, but only if each step between the charge and the cash is priced.

Valuation6 min read

Discount Rates for Moroccan NPL Bids

The discount rate in NPL pricing reflects not just time value but country risk, legal uncertainty, portfolio composition and operational complexity.

Valuation9 min read

Loan Tape Analysis for Moroccan NPL Portfolios

Loan tape quality determines underwriting confidence. Key fields, common data gaps and structuring the initial stratification are essential first steps.

Valuation9 min read

Downside Cases in NPL Pricing

A robust bid price accounts for scenarios where recoveries disappoint. Downside cases test sensitivity to timing delays, lower realizations and cost overruns.

Valuation7 min read

Consensual Settlements on Moroccan NPLs

Consensual settlements can accelerate recovery and reduce costs. Structuring effective settlement offers requires understanding debtor incentives and alternative outcomes.

Valuation7 min read

Enforcement Against Guarantors in Morocco

Personal guarantees can enhance recovery but enforcement depends on guarantor solvency and legal validity. Understanding the Moroccan framework is essential for realistic valuation.

Valuation3 min read

Leasing NPLs in Morocco

On a defaulted lease, value depends on taking the asset back and selling it, on its condition and on the lessor's right. A residential-mortgage curve does not apply.

Valuation2 min read

NPL classification contagion inside a group

Group links, cross-guarantees and centralised cash can carry default from one exposure to another. A loan tape that ignores them overstates the performing share.

Valuation2 min read

First-ranking mortgages and useful rank

First rank on the title comes after costs and prior charges that actually exist. Useful rank is what remains once those amounts are taken.

Valuation2 min read

Pledging a business (fonds de commerce)

A fonds de commerce bundles customers, the lease, equipment and the name. If the business has stopped, the pledge may cover nothing, even though the registration remains.

Valuation2 min read

Default interest and economic value

Default interest inflates the balance on the tape. A large part is often never collected, in a settlement or in an enforcement. Price starts from cash, not from that balance.

Valuation2 min read

Vintage analysis of Moroccan NPLs

A recent vintage may still cure. An old vintage has often exhausted the amicable path. One curve for 2016 and 2024 erases that difference.

Valuation2 min read

NPL cure rates in Morocco

NPL cure rates in Morocco: a method note for Moroccan portfolios, without invented rates.

Valuation2 min read

NPV of NPL recovery cash flows

NPV of NPL recovery cash flows: a method note for Moroccan portfolios, without invented rates.

Regulation

Regulation9 min read

FPCT Structures for Moroccan NPL Transfers

An investor guide to Moroccan FPCT structures for non-performing loan portfolios, and how they differ from the proposed direct-transfer regime.

Regulation3 min read

Pre-doubtful claims in Morocco

Pre-doubtful claims are the first bucket in Bank Al-Maghrib's grid. Article 5 of Circular 19/G/2002 covers both 90-day arrears and qualitative cases.

Regulation3 min read

Compromised claims in Moroccan banks

Compromised claims dominate bank NPLs. Article 7 covers 360 days and recoveries treated as unlikely. The minimum provision is 100%.

Regulation2 min read

Assignment of mortgage rank in Morocco

Assigning a claim while the mortgage stays behind, or yielding rank to a new lender, changes the waterfall. Draft Law 02-26, which is not enacted, does not settle the question today.

Regulation2 min read

Minimum provisions of 20, 50 and 100 percent

Article 13 of Circular 19/G/2002 sets 20% for pre-doubtful claims, 50% for doubtful claims and 100% for compromised claims. Those rates are neither the sector coverage ratio nor a price.

Regulation2 min read

IFRS 9 versus BAM NPL classification

IFRS 9 staging and Bank Al-Maghrib's prudential NPL grid serve different purposes. Treating them as equivalents distorts both provisioning and economic value.

Regulation2 min read

Bank set-off on Moroccan NPLs

Bank set-off on Moroccan NPLs: a method note for Moroccan portfolios, without invented rates.

Servicing & Recovery

Servicing & Recovery7 min read

Mortgage Enforcement Timelines in Morocco

Mortgage enforcement in Morocco follows established procedures but timelines vary significantly. Understanding realistic durations is critical for accurate NPL underwriting.

Servicing & Recovery7 min read

Building NPL Portfolio Monitoring After Acquisition

Post-acquisition monitoring determines realized returns. Effective frameworks track collection performance, costs and deviations from underwriting assumptions.

Servicing & Recovery2 min read

Judicial auction price versus collateral value

An auction produces a price inside a procedure, sometimes from a reserve, sometimes with no bidder. That price, net of costs, is cash. The appraisal is not.

Servicing & Recovery2 min read

Limitation periods on Moroccan bank claims

The time available to sue depends on the nature of the claim, the parties and the acts that interrupted time. The loan tape's default date is not that date.

Servicing & Recovery2 min read

Deceased borrowers and Moroccan NPLs

Deceased borrowers and Moroccan NPLs: a method note for Moroccan portfolios, without invented rates.

Investing

Investing6 min read

Distressed Debt vs NPL Investing in Morocco

Distressed debt investing and NPL portfolio acquisition overlap but differ in legal status, turnaround potential and required operational capability.

Investing7 min read

NPL Data Rooms: What Buyers Expect

A well-organized data room accelerates due diligence and attracts better bids. Buyers expect loan-level data, security documentation and procedural status.

Investing10 min read

Bid Pricing Strategy for Moroccan NPL Processes

Translating a valuation into a winning bid requires understanding seller expectations, competition and the trade-off between price and execution certainty.

Investing2 min read

Granular and single-name NPL portfolios

A granular book is modelled in statistical pockets. A single name is underwritten file by file. A portfolio that calls itself granular while one name is 40% of face value is a single name.

Investing2 min read

NPL portfolio carve-out criteria

NPL portfolio carve-out criteria: a method note for Moroccan portfolios, without invented rates.

Reviewing a distressed-credit opportunity in Morocco?

If you are evaluating a portfolio, preparing a transaction or monitoring acquired exposures, we would be pleased to discuss the situation.

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