Market
Loan moratoria and Morocco's NPL stock
Suspending the instalment delays classification. It does not erase the economic arrears.
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- Serenor Capital
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When instalments are suspended, the clock that pushes a file onto the grid slows down. The published stock can look calm while the borrowers concerned produce no cash. The calm belongs to the definition, not to the economics.
Classification and the clock
The 90, 180 and 360 day thresholds of Circular 19/G/2002 assume instalments that are running. If the instalment is postponed by a moratorium, arrears in the sense of the counter do not lengthen in the same way. The file can stay off the grid, or enter later.
That does not switch off the qualitative articles: a known deterioration of the counterparty can justify classification without waiting for the counter. A moratorium is not immunity. The text remains the classification grid described in the methodology.
Reading a ratio that looks 'too stable'
A year in which the banks' ratio barely moves can be a year of genuine balance between new defaults and exits. It can also be a year in which postponements froze entries. The two readings are separated only with flows: new classifications, cures, write-offs, sales.
The monitor publishes stocks at 31 December, not those flows. A stock change is therefore not converted here into a 'moratorium effect'.
Vintage
Files classified just after a moratorium ends often have a longer economic age than their prudential vintage. Placing them on the curve for fresh defaults overstates near-term cure.
The treatment of that cut is the one in vintage analysis: a written assumption, not an imported rate.
A portfolio being sold
If the tape contains a postponement flag, it is segmented. If it does not, the moratorium is not rebuilt from the origination date. It is asked of the seller.
A missing field is a limit on price. It is stated in the note. It is not filled with a sector average.
In this series
This note is a method of reading a file or a published series. It is not legal, tax or investment advice, and it is not an opinion on a particular exposure. Serenor Capital does not buy claims for its own account, manage a fund, or carry on collection.
Sources and references
- Bank Al-Maghrib, Annual Report on Banking Supervision, financial year 2025 — PDF
- Bank Al-Maghrib, Circular No. 19/G/2002 of 23 December 2002 on the classification of claims and their provisioning, as amended — PDF
- Circular No. 1/W/2025, adopted on 5 December 2025, effective 1 January 2027. It does not restate the 2012–2025 figures discussed here.
- Serenor public series, banks, social basis — Morocco NPL Monitor and methodology
Frequently asked questions
- Does a moratorium improve the NPL ratio?
- It can defer recognition. It is not an improvement in ability to pay. When instalments resume, entries into the grid can bunch.
- Does this note quantify Moroccan moratoria?
- No. Without a verified outstanding, file by file or on an extracted line of a report, no amount is stated.
Evaluating an NPL Portfolio
Serenor Capital supports financial institutions and investors in the analysis and valuation of non-performing loan portfolios in Morocco.
Serenor Capital publishes research on non-performing loans, distressed-credit valuation and the development of Morocco’s secondary credit market.
This note is general commentary on method and market structure. It is not investment advice, legal advice, or a recommendation in relation to any portfolio, transaction or financial asset.