Valuation
NPL cure rates in Morocco
Do not confuse exit from classification with cash recovery.
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- Serenor Capital
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A claim can leave the non-performing category through regularisation or restructuring without cash recovery of the full face amount. Conversely, partial cash recovery can occur wit This note details the operating reading before price.
Exit versus recovery
A claim can leave the non-performing category through regularisation or restructuring without cash recovery of the full face amount. Conversely, partial cash recovery can occur without immediate exit from classification. Mixing the two produces unreadable back-tests.
For a buyer, an observed cure rate at the seller is transferable only if reclassification policies, settlement authorities and portfolio mix are comparable. Otherwise it is a numeric anecdote.
What the tape must capture
Useful fields include date of entry into non-performance, date and reason for any exit, current status, and cash actually collected over the period. Without cash, a 'cure' remains prudential information, not proof of economic performance.
At end-2025 Bank Al-Maghrib published an NPL stock of MAD 102.3 billion, an 8.3% social-basis NPL ratio (8.8% consolidated) and 68% coverage. Those aggregates frame the market; they do not replace analysis of the sold book.
Use in a pricing model
A base case may include a probability of amicable regularisation. It must also include the cost and timing of that path. A fast low-cash cure is not worth the same as a slow high-cash cure.
Notes on recovery rate and recovery timing remain distinct: one concerns cash quantum, the other calendar. Exit from classification is a third concept.
Limits
No standard cure rate is published here. Draft Law 02-26, which is not promulgated, does not supply a market parameter either.
The hard rule is not to use an exit rate as a substitute for a cash recovery rate.
In this series
- NPL valuation Morocco
- Morocco NPL market
- Collateral vs recovery
- IFRS 9 versus BAM NPL classification
- Days past due and NPL classification in Morocco
This note is a method of reading a file or a published series. It is not legal, tax or investment advice, and it is not an opinion on a particular exposure. Serenor Capital does not buy claims for its own account, manage a fund, or carry on collection.
Sources and references
- Bank Al-Maghrib, Annual Report on Banking Supervision, financial year 2025 — PDF
- Bank Al-Maghrib, Circular No. 19/G/2002 of 23 December 2002 on the classification of claims and their provisioning, as amended — PDF
- Circular No. 1/W/2025, adopted on 5 December 2025, effective 1 January 2027. It does not restate the 2012–2025 figures discussed here.
- Dahir forming the Code of Obligations and Contracts (DOC); Commercial Code, Book V, as amended by Law 73-17, where relevant.
- Serenor public series — Morocco NPL Monitor and methodology
Frequently asked questions
- Does this note publish a market rate?
- No. It fixes a method of reading. Parameters remain those of the analysed portfolio.
- Does draft Law 02-26 change this analysis?
- Not while it remains unpromulgated. It must not be treated as an in-force regime.
Evaluating an NPL Portfolio
Serenor Capital supports financial institutions and investors in the analysis and valuation of non-performing loan portfolios in Morocco.
Serenor Capital publishes research on non-performing loans, distressed-credit valuation and the development of Morocco’s secondary credit market.
This note is general commentary on method and market structure. It is not investment advice, legal advice, or a recommendation in relation to any portfolio, transaction or financial asset.