Days past due and NPL classification in Morocco

Days past due are a common operating input to classification and monitoring. They do not alone summarise file quality: first-ranking security, an open proceeding or a dispute can d This note details the operating reading before price.

DPD and the prudential grid

Days past due are a common operating input to classification and monitoring. They do not alone summarise file quality: first-ranking security, an open proceeding or a dispute can dominate DPD in value terms for a buyer.

Circular 19/G/2002 and its amendments organise thresholds and categories. Reading them faithfully prevents turning a day-count into a pricing theory or a mechanical haircut schedule.

Portfolio reading

A DPD histogram on the tape shows relative stock freshness. A very aged book does not automatically imply zero recovery, but it changes contact assumptions, escalation likelihood and procedural cost paths.

At end-2025 Bank Al-Maghrib published an NPL stock of MAD 102.3 billion, an 8.3% social-basis NPL ratio (8.8% consolidated) and 68% coverage. Those aggregates frame the market; they do not replace analysis of the sold book.

Modelling traps

A linear haircut per day past due is rarely defensible. Category transitions are discontinuous, and procedural costs jump when a file moves from amicable treatment into formal enforcement.

DPD should be crossed with procedural stage and security type. Otherwise the model ignores the information that is most expensive to obtain and verify in the data room.

Limits

This note does not republish regulatory thresholds as a simulator. It only fixes the role of DPD in portfolio analysis and keeps it distinct from recovery rate and recovery timing.

Any bid still depends on the tape and the seller's actually applied internal rules. Draft Law 02-26 is not promulgated and does not create a DPD-linked market price scale.

In this series

• Morocco NPL market
• NPL valuation Morocco
• Draft Law 02-26
• NPL cure rates in Morocco
• Working-capital NPLs in Morocco

This note is a method of reading a file or a published series. It is not legal, tax or investment advice, and it is not an opinion on a particular exposure. Serenor Capital does not buy claims for its own account, manage a fund, or carry on collection.

Sources and references

• Bank Al-Maghrib, Annual Report on Banking Supervision, financial year 2025 — PDF
• Bank Al-Maghrib, Circular No. 19/G/2002 of 23 December 2002 on the classification of claims and their provisioning, as amended — PDF
• Circular No. 1/W/2025, adopted on 5 December 2025, effective 1 January 2027. It does not restate the 2012–2025 figures discussed here.
• Dahir forming the Code of Obligations and Contracts (DOC); Commercial Code, Book V, as amended by Law 73-17, where relevant.
• Serenor public series — Morocco NPL Monitor and methodology