Loan Tape Analysis for Moroccan NPL Portfolios

The loan tape is the foundation of every NPL portfolio transaction. It is the structured dataset that defines what is being sold, what claims exist, and what information the buyer has to work with. In Morocco, where secondary-market transactions remain episodic and data practices are not yet standardised across institutions, the quality of the tape determines not only how accurately a portfolio can be priced but whether it can be priced at all.

For investors, a tape is not a valuation. It is the raw material from which a valuation must be constructed. Understanding what a Moroccan loan tape typically contains, what it frequently omits, and how to interrogate it is prerequisite to any serious acquisition effort.

What a loan tape is

A loan tape is a structured file — usually a spreadsheet or database extract — listing every exposure in the portfolio with key attributes for each. In its simplest form it provides, for each loan: a borrower identifier, a claim amount, a classification status, and a date. In its most developed form it includes dozens of fields covering the original credit, the collateral, the payment history, the procedural status, and the recovery actions already undertaken.

The tape serves two distinct purposes. First, it defines the legal perimeter of the transaction: the exposures that will transfer if the deal closes. Second, it provides the data that buyers use to estimate recoveries and price the portfolio. These purposes can conflict. A seller wants a clean perimeter with minimum exclusions; a buyer wants rich data even if it reveals problems.

Standard fields in a Moroccan loan tape

Moroccan bank systems vary in their data architecture, but a reasonably complete tape will include the following categories of information.

Exposure identification

Each exposure should carry a unique identifier that links to the bank's core system. Borrower name, national identification number (for individuals) or registration number (for companies), and contact information follow. For corporate exposures, group affiliations and guarantor relationships should be identified.

Claim composition

The total claim amount requires decomposition. Principal outstanding, accrued contractual interest, default interest, capitalised amounts, and fees should be broken out separately. This matters because not all components of the claim have equal legal standing. Default interest may be subject to caps or judicial reduction. Capitalised penalties may be challenged. The face value printed on a summary line is less useful than its components.

Classification and staging

Moroccan banks classify NPLs into three categories: pré-douteux (pre-doubtful), douteux (doubtful), and compromis (compromised). The tape should identify the current classification, the date of first classification as non-performing, and ideally the migration history. A new classification circular adopted by the Credit Institutions Committee in December 2025 aligns Moroccan practice more closely with IFRS 9 staging, so buyers should confirm which framework the tape reflects.

Collateral and security

Secured exposures require collateral detail: the nature of the security (mortgage, pledge, guarantee), the property or asset description, the last valuation amount and date, and the registration status. For real estate, land registry references (titres fonciers or réquisitions) are essential. The distinction between registered and unregistered land is critical in Morocco; security over unregistered property carries materially different enforcement risk.

Procedural status

The tape should identify where each exposure stands in the recovery process. Is it in amicable collection? Has legal action been initiated? If so, at what stage — injunction, enforcement order, seizure, auction? For judicial proceedings, court references and key procedural dates allow verification.

Payment and recovery history

Any payments received since default, whether from the borrower or from partial realisations, should appear with dates and amounts. Prior write-offs or provisions, while not directly relevant to the buyer's recovery analysis, indicate the seller's view of the exposure.

What Moroccan tapes frequently lack

Experience with Moroccan portfolios reveals recurring data gaps. Investors should anticipate these and plan their diligence accordingly.

Incomplete collateral data

Valuations are often stale, sometimes by several years. Properties may be described by address rather than by formal land registry reference. Registration status is sometimes missing or uncertain. For pledged assets, current condition and location may be unknown.

Missing procedural history

Procedural status may be recorded as a single current state without the underlying history. Knowing that a file is "in enforcement" is less useful than knowing when enforcement began, what obstacles have been encountered, and what the next milestone is.

Opaque group structures

Corporate exposures in Morocco often involve complex group structures with cross-guarantees and related-party transactions. The tape may list exposures by legal entity without identifying which entities are economically connected. This matters for concentration analysis and for structuring negotiations with borrower groups.

Unrecorded servicing activity

Internal collections activity — calls made, letters sent, settlement offers — may not be captured in structured form. The bank's relationship managers may hold information about borrower circumstances that never reached the tape.

Validating the tape

A buyer cannot price a portfolio on tape data alone. The tape must be tested against source documents, external records, and operational reality.

Sample-based document review

For material exposures — typically the top tier by claim value and by expected recovery — loan files should be pulled and reconciled to the tape. Does the claim amount match the accounting records? Are the security documents present and in order? Does the procedural status match court records?

The sampling strategy matters. Random sampling provides confidence in the overall tape quality. Targeted sampling of the largest exposures provides assurance on the positions that drive the portfolio value. Both are needed.

Land registry verification

For secured Moroccan exposures, independent verification of security registration is essential. The Conservation Foncière maintains land records for registered properties. A certificate of inscription (certificat de propriété) confirms the registered owner and the charges recorded against the property. This step catches security that was never properly perfected or that has been released without the tape being updated.

Court file review

For exposures in litigation, the court file contains the procedural truth. Procedural stages, judgment amounts, dates of key rulings, and any complications — appeals, objections, interventions — are documented there. Where the tape shows a file "in auction" but the court records show the auction was adjourned twice for bidder absence, the recovery timeline changes materially.

Borrower status check

For corporate exposures, a commercial registry extract (extrait du registre de commerce) confirms whether the entity still exists, whether it is in liquidation, and who the current directors are. For individual borrowers, address verification and mortality checks may be relevant for larger exposures.

From tape to pricing model

Once validated, the tape feeds the pricing model. The process is not mechanical.

Segmentation

Exposures are grouped by characteristics that predict recovery behaviour: secured versus unsecured, individual versus corporate, procedural stage, claim size, collateral type, geographic region. The purpose of segmentation is to identify exposures that will behave similarly, allowing efficient modelling while preserving the granularity needed for the largest positions.

Individual underwriting of material exposures

The exposures that account for the majority of expected portfolio value — typically a small percentage by count — are underwritten individually. For each, a recovery scenario is constructed: what route to recovery, what amount, what costs, what timing. These scenarios draw on tape data but also on the document review and the verification steps described above.

Statistical treatment of the tail

The remaining exposures — numerous but individually small — are modelled by segment. Average recovery rates and timelines are applied, calibrated to historical performance where available and to comparable portfolio benchmarks where not. The statistical treatment accepts that not every small file can be individually underwritten, but the segments must be homogeneous enough that averages are meaningful.

Gap adjustments

Where the tape is incomplete, pricing must reflect that incompleteness. Missing valuations may require conservative assumptions or exclusion of the exposure from the secured recovery calculation. Uncertain procedural status may require extended timelines. Unverified security may need to be treated as unsecured for pricing purposes.

Data room expectations

In a Moroccan NPL sale process, the data room supplements the tape with supporting documentation. Buyers should expect — and request if not provided:

• Loan agreements and amendments for sampled exposures
• Security documents (mortgage deeds, pledge agreements, guarantees)
• Valuation reports for secured exposures
• Court documents for litigated files
• Internal collections notes or servicing reports where available
• Portfolio stratification tables by various dimensions
• Historical recovery performance on comparable portfolios (if the seller has prior transaction experience)

For a comprehensive checklist of data room requirements, see NPL Data Room: A Buyer's Checklist.

Tape quality and price

The relationship between tape quality and price is direct but often underappreciated by sellers.

A tape with comprehensive, verified data allows a buyer to price the portfolio tightly — to bid with confidence near the fair value. A tape with gaps forces conservative assumptions, wider pricing ranges, and lower bids. The difference can exceed the cost of the data remediation that would have avoided it.

For sellers, investing in tape quality before launch is not a favour to buyers; it is a mechanism for extracting better pricing. For buyers, the tape review process identifies not only risks but also opportunities — exposures that are better than the tape suggests, or data gaps that competitors may price more conservatively than warranted.

Serenor Capital's role

Serenor Capital provides tape analysis, validation support, and pricing model development for institutional investors evaluating Moroccan NPL portfolios. We do not acquire loans for our own account or provide collection services. Our function is analytical: converting loan tape data into defensible recovery projections and investment recommendations.

For related analysis, see How to Value a Non-Performing Loan Portfolio in Morocco and Pricing an NPL Portfolio: From Face Value to Cash Flows.

Sources

• Bank Al-Maghrib, Rapport Annuel sur la Supervision Bancaire — Exercice 2025 (June 2026)
• Credit Institutions Committee, Circular on credit classification and provisioning (adopted December 2025)
• Conservation Foncière, procedures for land registry verification
• Code de Commerce marocain, provisions on commercial registry and corporate status