Compromised claims in Moroccan banks

At end-2025, compromised claims were MAD 82.7 billion of the MAD 102.3 billion social-basis NPL stock of banks. Reading the market without this category describes the edge and misses the body of the stock.

Three ways in

Article 7 of Circular 19/G/2002 classifies as compromised the claims that are 360 days past due and those whose recovery is treated as unlikely. Article 8 adds a rule for monthly-instalment credit: the claim is compromised at nine unpaid instalments. Article 9 covers a restructured claim that falls unpaid again for 180 days.

A loan tape that shows only the label 'compromised', without the entry date, the instalment count or a prior restructuring, mixes different recovery histories. The prudential category is one fact. The path into it is another, and that path is what drives the cash-flow calendar.

The 100% floor

Article 13 sets the minimum provision on compromised claims at 100%, after reserved interest and after eligible guarantees on the text's conditions. A claim can be 'covered' in the prudential sense and still have economic value if the eligible guarantee is real, enforceable and realisable.

The opposite mistake is to treat a 100% provision as proof the bank has abandoned the file. An accounting write-off, when it happens, is a separate act. While the claim still sits in the stock, it has not left the balance sheet by that route.

Share and change

The compromised share at end-2025 is 80.8%. Since 2022 it has fallen by 2.3 percentage points. That move is a change in mix. It is not a growth rate and it is not a recovery performance.

In 2024, compromised claims were 82.2 billion out of 97.4. The rise in the nominal compromised stock from 2024 to 2025 (82.2 to 82.7) is small beside the jump in doubtful claims (8.7 to 14.7). The mix moved because the other bands moved, not only because compromised claims grew. The figures are those of the monitor.

What it means in a portfolio

A book whose lines are already compromised has, in general, left the phase where a simple rescheduling returns the file to performing. That does not close an amicable path. It changes what delay and what rate it is reasonable to underwrite. The comparison sits in NPL settlement in Morocco.

The December 2025 circular takes effect only in 2027. It does not reclassify, backwards, the compromised stocks already published. A price that 'anticipates the new grid' on a historical book has to be labelled as a scenario, not as the bank's classification.

In this series

• Morocco NPL market
• Morocco NPL Monitor
• Pre-doubtful claims in Morocco
• How to read Morocco's NPL coverage ratio

This note is a method of reading a file or a published series. It is not legal, tax or investment advice, and it is not an opinion on a particular exposure. Serenor Capital does not buy claims for its own account, manage a fund, or carry on collection.

Sources and references

• Bank Al-Maghrib, Annual Report on Banking Supervision, financial year 2025 — PDF
• Bank Al-Maghrib, Circular No. 19/G/2002 of 23 December 2002 on the classification of claims and their provisioning, as amended — PDF
• Circular No. 1/W/2025, adopted on 5 December 2025, effective 1 January 2027. It does not restate the 2012–2025 figures discussed here.
• Serenor public series, banks, social basis — Morocco NPL Monitor and methodology